What is a realistic bar tab for 150 guests (Beer, wine, cider, soft drink)?

I have done a mountain of research and the calculations people provide leave us with a figure of about $10k but then when people who have been married make comment it is far less. I just need a realistic figure to put in our budget. We are looking into having the reception as a gin distillery so their drinks are a little pricier but they haven't officially opened yet so I don't have them. Thanks!